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1.
JAMA ; 329(22): 1934-1946, 2023 06 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20243721

ABSTRACT

Importance: SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with persistent, relapsing, or new symptoms or other health effects occurring after acute infection, termed postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), also known as long COVID. Characterizing PASC requires analysis of prospectively and uniformly collected data from diverse uninfected and infected individuals. Objective: To develop a definition of PASC using self-reported symptoms and describe PASC frequencies across cohorts, vaccination status, and number of infections. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective observational cohort study of adults with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection at 85 enrolling sites (hospitals, health centers, community organizations) located in 33 states plus Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico. Participants who were enrolled in the RECOVER adult cohort before April 10, 2023, completed a symptom survey 6 months or more after acute symptom onset or test date. Selection included population-based, volunteer, and convenience sampling. Exposure: SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: PASC and 44 participant-reported symptoms (with severity thresholds). Results: A total of 9764 participants (89% SARS-CoV-2 infected; 71% female; 16% Hispanic/Latino; 15% non-Hispanic Black; median age, 47 years [IQR, 35-60]) met selection criteria. Adjusted odds ratios were 1.5 or greater (infected vs uninfected participants) for 37 symptoms. Symptoms contributing to PASC score included postexertional malaise, fatigue, brain fog, dizziness, gastrointestinal symptoms, palpitations, changes in sexual desire or capacity, loss of or change in smell or taste, thirst, chronic cough, chest pain, and abnormal movements. Among 2231 participants first infected on or after December 1, 2021, and enrolled within 30 days of infection, 224 (10% [95% CI, 8.8%-11%]) were PASC positive at 6 months. Conclusions and Relevance: A definition of PASC was developed based on symptoms in a prospective cohort study. As a first step to providing a framework for other investigations, iterative refinement that further incorporates other clinical features is needed to support actionable definitions of PASC.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Female , Adult , Humans , Middle Aged , Male , COVID-19/complications , Prospective Studies , Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome , Cohort Studies , Disease Progression , Fatigue
2.
Front Immunol ; 14: 1182544, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20231008

ABSTRACT

Background: Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC) is marked by persistent or newly developing symptoms beyond 4 weeks of infection. Investigating gut integrity, oxidized lipids and inflammatory markers is important for understanding PASC pathogenesis. Methods: A cross-sectional study including COVID+ with PASC, COVID+ without PASC, and COVID-negative (COVID-) participants. We measured plasma markers by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to assess intestinal permeability (ZONULIN), microbial translocation (lipopolysaccharide-binding protein or LBP), systemic inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein or hs-CRP), and oxidized low-density lipoprotein (Ox-LDL). Results: 415 participants were enrolled in this study; 37.83% (n=157) had prior COVID diagnosis and among COVID+, 54% (n=85) had PASC. The median zonulin among COVID- was 3.37 (IQR: 2.13, 4.91) mg/mL, 3.43 (IQR: 1.65, 5.25) mg/mL among COVID+ no PASC, and highest [4.76 (IQR: 3.2, 7.35) mg/mL] among COVID+ PASC+ (p<.0001). The median ox-LDL among COVID- was 47.02 (IQR: 35.52, 62.77) U/L, 57.24 (IQR: 40.7, 75.37) U/L among COVID+ No PASC, and the highest [76.75 (IQR: 59.95, 103.28) U/L] among COVID+ PASC+ (p<.0001). COVID+ PASC+ was positively associated with zonulin (p=0.0002) and ox-LDL (p<.0001), and COVID- was negatively associated with ox-LDL (p=0.01), compared to COVID+ No PASC. Every unit increase in zonulin was associated with 44% higher predicted odds of having PASC [aOR: 1.44 (95%CI: 1.1, 1.9)] and every one-unit increase in ox-LDL was associated with more than four-fold increased odds of having PASC [aOR: 2.44 (95%CI: 1.67, 3.55)]. Conclusions: PASC is associated with increased gut permeability and oxidized lipids. Further studies are needed to clarify whether these relationships are causal which could lead to targeted therapeutics.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/metabolism , Cross-Sectional Studies , Lipoproteins, LDL/metabolism , C-Reactive Protein/metabolism , Disease Progression
3.
Front Immunol ; 14: 1129459, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2252588

ABSTRACT

Although most individuals recover from acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, a significant number continue to suffer from Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), including the unexplained symptoms that are frequently referred to as long COVID, which could last for weeks, months, or even years after the acute phase of illness. The National Institutes of Health is currently funding large multi-center research programs as part of its Researching COVID to Enhance Recover (RECOVER) initiative to understand why some individuals do not recover fully from COVID-19. Several ongoing pathobiology studies have provided clues to potential mechanisms contributing to this condition. These include persistence of SARS-CoV-2 antigen and/or genetic material, immune dysregulation, reactivation of other latent viral infections, microvascular dysfunction, and gut dysbiosis, among others. Although our understanding of the causes of long COVID remains incomplete, these early pathophysiologic studies suggest biological pathways that could be targeted in therapeutic trials that aim to ameliorate symptoms. Repurposed medicines and novel therapeutics deserve formal testing in clinical trial settings prior to adoption. While we endorse clinical trials, especially those that prioritize inclusion of the diverse populations most affected by COVID-19 and long COVID, we discourage off-label experimentation in uncontrolled and/or unsupervised settings. Here, we review ongoing, planned, and potential future therapeutic interventions for long COVID based on the current understanding of the pathobiological processes underlying this condition. We focus on clinical, pharmacological, and feasibility data, with the goal of informing future interventional research studies.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Virus Diseases , United States , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome , Motivation
4.
Int J Infect Dis ; 128: 148-156, 2023 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2244274

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: We performed a pilot study of upamostat, a serine protease inhibitor, in outpatients with symptomatic COVID-19 before a pivotal trial. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 patients with ≥2 moderate-severe symptoms onset within 5 days were randomized to oral upamostat 200 or 400 mg or placebo daily for 14 days. Patients completed COVID-19 symptom questionnaires daily for 28 days, then thrice weekly for 4 weeks, and underwent physical and laboratory examinations periodically. RESULTS: A total of 61 patients enrolled of which 20 received a placebo or upamostat 200 mg daily; 21 received upamostat 400 mg daily. Treatment was well tolerated; only one patient (upamostat 400) reported a drug-related adverse event, mild skin rash; no patient discontinued owing to a drug-related adverse event. The median time to a sustained recovery from severe symptoms was 8, 4, and 3 days for the three treatment groups, respectively. New severe symptoms developed in 20% of the placebo group vs 2.4% in the combined upamostat groups, (P = 0.036). Three placebo patients (15%) versus no upamostat patients were hospitalized for worsening COVID (P= 0.03). The mean d-dimer level remained constant in placebo patients but decreased by 38% and 48% in upamostat 200 and 400 patients, respectively. CONCLUSION: Upamostat was well tolerated, shortened recovery time, and decreased new severe symptoms and hospitalization.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Pilot Projects , Outpatients , Serine Proteinase Inhibitors , Treatment Outcome , Double-Blind Method
5.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 21779, 2022 12 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2186033

ABSTRACT

Elevated serum cytokine production in COVID-19 patients is associated with disease progression and severity. However, the stimuli that initiate cytokine production in patients remain to be fully revealed. Virus-infected cells release virus-associated exosomes, extracellular vesicles of endocytic origin, into the blood to deliver viral cargoes able to regulate immune responses. Here, we report that plasma exosomes of COVID-19 patients contain SARS-CoV-2 double stranded RNA (dsRNA) and stimulate robust production of interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-8, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and other inflammatory cytokines and chemokines by human peripheral mononuclear cells. Exosome depletion abolished these stimulated responses. COVID-19 plasma exosomes induced proinflammatory responses in CD4+ T cells, CD8+ T cells, and CD14+ monocytes but not significantly in regulatory T cells, Th17 T cells, or central memory T cells. COVID-19 plasma exosomes protect the SARS-CoV-2 dsRNA cargo from RNase and deliver the dsRNA into recipient cells. These exosomes significantly increase expression of endosomal toll-like receptor 3 (TLR3), TLR7, TLR8, and TLR9 in peripheral T cells and monocytes. A pharmacological inhibitor of TLR3 considerably reduced cytokine and chemokine production by CD4+ and CD8+ T cells but not by CD14+ monocytes, highlighting divergent signaling pathways of immune cells in response to COVID-19 plasma exosomes. Our results identify a novel model of intercellular crosstalk following SARS-CoV-2 infection that evoke immune responses positioned to contribute to elevated cytokine production associated with COVID-19 progression, severity, and long-haul symptoms.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Exosomes , Humans , Exosomes/metabolism , Toll-Like Receptor 3/metabolism , Leukocytes, Mononuclear/metabolism , CD8-Positive T-Lymphocytes/metabolism , SARS-CoV-2/metabolism , COVID-19/metabolism , Cytokines/metabolism , RNA, Double-Stranded/metabolism , Immunity
6.
EBioMedicine ; 83: 104208, 2022 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2035962

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Better understanding of the association between characteristics of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and outcome is needed to further improve upon patient management. METHODS: Immunophenotyping Assessment in a COVID-19 Cohort (IMPACC) is a prospective, observational study of 1164 patients from 20 hospitals across the United States. Disease severity was assessed using a 7-point ordinal scale based on degree of respiratory illness. Patients were prospectively surveyed for 1 year after discharge for post-acute sequalae of COVID-19 (PASC) through quarterly surveys. Demographics, comorbidities, radiographic findings, clinical laboratory values, SARS-CoV-2 PCR and serology were captured over a 28-day period. Multivariable logistic regression was performed. FINDINGS: The median age was 59 years (interquartile range [IQR] 20); 711 (61%) were men; overall mortality was 14%, and 228 (20%) required invasive mechanical ventilation. Unsupervised clustering of ordinal score over time revealed distinct disease course trajectories. Risk factors associated with prolonged hospitalization or death by day 28 included age ≥ 65 years (odds ratio [OR], 2.01; 95% CI 1.28-3.17), Hispanic ethnicity (OR, 1.71; 95% CI 1.13-2.57), elevated baseline creatinine (OR 2.80; 95% CI 1.63- 4.80) or troponin (OR 1.89; 95% 1.03-3.47), baseline lymphopenia (OR 2.19; 95% CI 1.61-2.97), presence of infiltrate by chest imaging (OR 3.16; 95% CI 1.96-5.10), and high SARS-CoV2 viral load (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.17-2.00). Fatal cases had the lowest ratio of SARS-CoV-2 antibody to viral load levels compared to other trajectories over time (p=0.001). 589 survivors (51%) completed at least one survey at follow-up with 305 (52%) having at least one symptom consistent with PASC, most commonly dyspnea (56% among symptomatic patients). Female sex was the only associated risk factor for PASC. INTERPRETATION: Integration of PCR cycle threshold, and antibody values with demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory/radiographic findings identified risk factors for 28-day outcome severity, though only female sex was associated with PASC. Longitudinal clinical phenotyping offers important insights, and provides a framework for immunophenotyping for acute and long COVID-19. FUNDING: NIH.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/complications , Creatinine , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Phenotype , Prospective Studies , RNA, Viral , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index , Troponin , Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome
7.
J Phys Act Health ; 19(9): 638-641, 2022 09 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1973771

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The present study aims to understand the socioeconomic and physical activity impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on children living with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV) and without HIV (HIV-) in Kampala (Uganda). METHODS: The authors included children aged 10-18 years who filled out questionnaires at baseline (2017-2018, prepandemic) and 2 years later (March 2020-January 2021, pandemic) in an observational cohort study at Joint Clinical Research Centre (Kampala). Physical activity energy expenditure was calculated using a youth compendium from the National Collaborative on Childhood Obesity Research. Descriptive and standard test statistics including Kruskal-Wallis were used. RESULTS: One hundred and ninety-eight children from Kampala Uganda were included prepandemic (101 PHIV and 97 HIV-); 131 (71 PHIV and 60 HIV-) had information collected during the pandemic. At baseline, median and interquartile range age was 13 years (11; 15), and 52% were females. During the pandemic, overall weekly physical activity increased by a median of 854 minutes (interquartile range: 270-1890), and energy expenditures increased by 16% in both PHIV and in HIV- (P < .001 for groups overall prepandemic vs pandemic). CONCLUSIONS: The authors found in this Ugandan cohort of children that children engaged in more physical activity. Further research is warranted to understand the long-term effects of the pandemic on children's well-being.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , HIV Infections , Pediatric Obesity , Adolescent , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Exercise , Female , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Male , Pandemics , Uganda/epidemiology
8.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 9(7): ofac228, 2022 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1931887

ABSTRACT

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have been proven to decrease the severity of acute-phase infection; however, little is known about their effect on postacute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC). Methods: Patients with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis and minimum age of 18 years with 3-month follow-up postdiagnosis between 21 September 2020 and 14 December 2021 were identified from the TriNetX Research Network platform. The primary outcomes consisted of new-onset or persistent symptoms, new-onset diagnoses, and death and were compared between vaccine and no-vaccine groups. Results: At baseline, 1 578 719 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were identified and 1.6% (n = 25 225) completed vaccination. After matching, there were no differences (P > .05) in demographics or preexisting comorbidities. At 28 days following COVID-19 diagnosis, the incidence of hypertension was 13.52 per 1000, diabetes was 5.98 per 1000, thyroid disease was 3.80 per 1000, heart disease was 15.41 per 1000, and mental disorders was 14.77 per 1000 in the vaccine cohort. At 90 days following COVID-19 diagnosis, the relative risk of hypertension was 0.33 (95% confidence interval [CI], .26-.42), diabetes was 0.28 (95% CI, .20-.38), heart disease was 0.35 (95% CI, .29-.44), and death was 0.21 (95% CI, .16-.27). Differences in both 28- and 90-day risk between the vaccine and no-vaccine cohorts were observed for each outcome, and there was enough evidence (P < .05) to suggest that these differences were attributed to the vaccine. Conclusions: Our data suggest that COVID-19 vaccine is protective against PASC symptoms, new onset of health conditions, and mortality.

9.
Open forum infectious diseases ; 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1864179

ABSTRACT

Background COVID-19 vaccines have been proven to decrease the severity of acute phase infection, however little is known about its effect on Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC). Methods Patients with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, minimum age of 18 years with 3 month follow-up post-diagnosis between September 21, 2020 and December 14, 2021 were identified from TriNetX research network platform. The primary outcomes consisted of new onset or persistent symptoms, new onset diagnoses, and death and were compared between vaccine and no-vaccine groups. Results At baseline, 1,578,719 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were identified and 1.6% (n = 25,225) completed vaccination. After matching, there were no differences (p > .05) in demographics or pre-existing comorbidities. At 28 days following COVID diagnosis, the incidence of hypertension was 13.52 per 1000, diabetes was 5.98 per 1000, thyroid disease was 3.80 per 1000, heart disease was 15.41 per 1000, and mental disorders was 14.77 per 1000 in the vaccine cohort. At 90 days following COVID diagnosis, the relative risk of hypertension was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.26, 0.42), diabetes was 0.28 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.38), heart disease was 0.35 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.44), and death was 0.21 (95% CI: 0.16, 0.27). Differences in both 28 and 90-day risk between the vaccine and no-vaccine cohorts were observed for each outcome and there was enough evidence (p < .05) to suggest that these differences were attributed to the vaccine. Conclusion Our data suggest that COVID-19 vaccine is protective against post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC) symptoms, new onset of health conditions, and mortality.

10.
Vaccines (Basel) ; 10(4)2022 Apr 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1776383

ABSTRACT

The world has entered the third year of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Vaccination is the primary public health strategy to protect against infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), in addition to other measures, such as mask wearing and social distancing. Vaccination has reduced COVID-19 severity and mortality dramatically. Nevertheless, incidence globally remains high, and certain populations are still at risk for severe outcomes. Additional strategies to support immunity, including potentially enhancing the response to vaccination, are needed. Many vitamins and trace minerals have recognized immunomodulatory actions, and their status and/or supplementation have been reported to correspond to the incidence and severity of infection. Furthermore, a variety of observational and some interventional studies report that adequate micronutrient status or micronutrient supplementation is associated with enhanced vaccine responses, including to COVID-19 vaccination. Such data suggest that micronutrient supplementation may hold the potential to improve vaccine immunogenicity and effectiveness, although additional interventional studies to further strengthen the existing evidence are needed. Positive findings from such research could have important implications for global public health, since deficiencies in several micronutrients that support immune function are prevalent in numerous settings, and supplementation can be implemented safely and inexpensively.

11.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 9(1): ofab608, 2022 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1621661

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Tocilizumab, an interleukin 6 receptor (IL-6R) antagonist monoclonal antibody, has shown efficacy in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia, but the optimal dose is unknown. METHODS: Patients hospitalized for moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia were randomized 1:1 to receive standard of care treatment and 1-2 doses of intravenous tocilizumab 4 mg/kg or 8 mg/kg (open-label). Primary pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic end points were serum concentrations of tocilizumab and soluble interleukin 6 receptor (sIL-6R), IL-6, ferritin, and C-reactive protein (CRP), from baseline to day 60. The secondary end point was safety. Key exploratory efficacy end points included clinical status, time to discharge, mortality rate, and incidence of mechanical ventilation. RESULTS: Of 100 patients randomized, 49 received tocilizumab 4 mg/kg and 48 received 8 mg/kg. In pharmacokinetic and sIL-6R assessments, dose-dependent differences were seen in patients who received 1 or 2 doses of 4 or 8 mg/kg. Serum concentrations of IL-6, ferritin, and CRP and safety outcomes were comparable between groups. Through day 60, serious adverse events were reported in 30.6% and 25.0% of patients in the 4- and 8-mg/kg groups, respectively. Eight patients (16.3%) in the 4-mg/kg group and 6 (12.5%) in the 8-mg/kg group died. Exploratory time-to-event outcomes favored 8 mg/kg within the first 2 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia who received tocilizumab 4 or 8 mg/kg, pharmacokinetic and sIL-6R assessments showed expected dose-dependent effects; pharmacodynamic assessments and safety were comparable, with no new safety signals. Further study is required before a lower dose of tocilizumab can be recommended in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04363736.

12.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 8(10): ofab408, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1526180

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We investigated the association of vitamin K and vitamin D with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. METHODS: Levels of inactive vitamin K-dependent dephosphorylated uncarboxylated matrix Gla protein (dp-ucMGP; marker of vitamin K status) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D; vitamin D status) were measured in plasma samples from participants with confirmed acute COVID-19 and were age- and sex-matched to healthy controls. Unadjusted odds ratios and adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% CIs were computed using cumulative logistic regression. RESULTS: One hundred fifty subjects were included, 100 COVID-19+ and 50 controls. The median age (interquartile range) was 55 (48-63) years, and 50% were females. Thirty-four percent had mild COVID-19 disease, 51% moderate disease, and 15% severe. Dp-ucMGP levels were higher (ie, worse K status) in COVID-19+ vs controls (776.5 ng/mL vs 549.8 ng/mL; P < .0001) with similar 25(OH)D between groups (25.8 vs 21.9 ng/mL; P = .09). Participants who were vitamin D deficient (<20 ng/mL) had the worse vitamin K status (dp-ucMGP >780 ng/mL) and experienced the most severe COVID-19 outcomes. In adjusted models, every 1-unit increase in the log2 dp-ucMGP nearly doubled the odds of acute critical disease or death (AOR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.01-3.45), and every 1-unit decrease in the natural log 25(OH)D was associated with >3 times the likelihood of severe COVID-19 disease (AOR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11-0.67). CONCLUSIONS: Early in acute COVID-19, both vitamin K and vitamin D deficiency were independently associated with worse COVID-19 disease severity, suggesting a potential synergistic interplay between these 2 vitamins in COVID-19.

13.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 8(7): ofab272, 2021 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1361787

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV) is a presumed risk factor for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), yet little is known about COVID-19 outcomes in people with HIV (PWH). METHODS: We used the TriNetX database to compare COVID-19 outcomes of PWH and HIV-negative controls aged ≥18 years who sought care in 44 healthcare centers in the United States from January 1 to December 1, 2020. Outcomes of interest were rates of hospitalization (composite of inpatient non-intensive care [ICU] and ICU admissions), mechanical ventilation, severe disease (ICU admission or death), and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Of 297 194 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 1638 (0.6%) were HIV-infected, with >83% on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and 48% virally suppressed. Overall, PWH were more commonly younger, male, African American or Hispanic, had more comorbidities, were more symptomatic, and had elevated procalcitonin and interleukin 6. Mortality at 30 days was comparable between the 2 groups (2.9% vs 2.3%, P = .123); however, PWH had higher rates hospitalization (16.5% vs 7.6%, P < .001), ICU admissions (4.2% vs 2.3%, P < .001), and mechanical ventilation (2.4% vs 1.6%, P < .005). Among PWH, hospitalization was independently associated with male gender, being African American, integrase inhibitor use, and low CD4 count; whereas severe disease was predicted by older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 8.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-50.00; P = .044) and CD4 <200 cells/mm3 (aOR, 8.33; 95% CI, 1.06-50.00; P = .044). CONCLUSIONS: People with HIV had higher rates of poor COVID-19 outcomes but were not more at risk of death than their non-HIV-infected counterparts. Older age and low CD4 count predicted adverse outcomes.

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